From flood risk to disaster : pre-existing vulnerabilities in Bahía Blanca (Argentine Republic)

Abstract

Because of climate change, ecosystem conditions have undergone significant transformations. Over the past two years, the city of Bahía Blanca (Argentina) has faced emergencies triggered by three extraordinary meteorological events of different natures. Among them, according to the National Meteorological Service, the flood of March 7 of 2025 was associated with exceptional rainfall that reached 290 mm in just 12 hours, with an approximate intensity of 25 mm/h and a recurrence period exceeding 100 years. This threat highlighted the accumulation of vulnerabilities that increased the risk, transforming a hydrometeorological phenomenon into a disaster with human casualties and substantial material losses. This study aims to identify some of the vulnerabilities that existed prior to that flood. Based on them, provide final considerations that contribute to comprehensive risk management aimed at minimizing future impacts. The analysis is structured according to the typology of vulnerabilities proposed by Wilches-Cháux. The results reveal the presence of political, institutional, social, physical, technical, economic, cultural, educational, ideological, and ecological vulnerabilities—all interrelated and cumulatively contributing to the occurrence of the disaster. It is concluded that risk management in Bahía Blanca requires a profound reassessment of the urban model, incorporating climate change adaptation criteria into territorial planning. Priority measures include updating the Urban Planning Code, strengthening green infrastructure, implementing early warning systems, and developing citizen training programs, among others.