Elaboración de aceite de oliva
Date
2022
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Abstract
El presente proyecto consiste en un estudio de prefactibilidad para instalar
una planta de elaboración de aceite de oliva.
En primera medida se evalúa el estudio de mercado, en donde se recopila
información de diferentes fuentes de entes públicos y privados, permitiendo
definir su oferta y demanda, canales principales de comercialización y los precios
de venta al mercado consumidor.
El enfoque principal del proyecto es la comercialización de aceite de oliva
hacia el mercado internacional por lo que, en el mercado consumidor, se
investigaron cuáles son los principales países que demandan, en mayor medida,
este producto final.
Por otro lado, se estudia el mercado proveedor analizando principalmente
los proveedores de materia prima e insumos, entre otros. Se determina que
existe disponibilidad de producción de aceitunas suficientes para desarrollar el
proyecto con productores locales.
En cuanto a la competencia, se realizó un estudio para determinar quiénes
y cuántos son los principales competidores, qué porción de mercado ocupan y
sus ventajas competitivas.
Por último, en el mercado distribuidor, se analizaron los medios más
adecuados para distribuir el producto, tanto al exterior, como dentro de la
República Argentina para el consumo interno.
Por otra parte, se evalúa el proceso productivo de extracción continuo. Se
realiza un análisis de tecnología que se enfoca principalmente en las máquinas
necesarias para desarrollar el proceso en cada una de sus etapas, estudiando
los principales proveedores, tanto mundiales como locales, que son Pieralisi,
Amenduni, GEA, Manzano y Flottweg, entre otros.
En lo que respecta al tamaño del proyecto, la producción anual proyectada
por temporada es de 1.678.304 litros. El 80% se comercializa al mercado exterior
a granel en envases flexitanks de 24.000 litros, y el 20% restante es fraccionado
para el mercado interno en botellas de vidrio oscuro de 500 c.c. con pico
dosificador y tapa a rosca metálica.
En el análisis de localización y, teniendo en cuenta una serie de factores
de interés, se determina que el departamento de Capital, provincia de La Rioja,
es la ubicación más adecuada para su establecimiento. Esta provincia es una de
las que cuenta con mayor superficie implantada en el país siendo un territorio
apto para el cultivo y desarrollo del olivo, principalmente por el clima. Además,
La Rioja se convirtió en la primera provincia argentina exportadora de aceite de
oliva, que es la actividad comercial principal de este proyecto.
La estructura organizacional fue definida para cumplir con 3 turnos de 8
horas cada uno durante los 3 meses que dura la temporada, contando con todos
los departamentos necesarios para el correcto funcionamiento en la actividad del
proyecto.
Se realiza un estudio de evaluación ambiental para conocer el impacto del
proyecto y se establece un plan de mitigación propicio para disminuir los riesgos
que se presenten.
En el estudio de evaluación económica se establece la estructura de
costos de inversión inicial del proyecto, costos fijos y variables, capital de trabajo,
así como también los ingresos por venta del producto y su rentabilidad.
El proyecto fue evaluado en un horizonte temporal de diez años
considerando un escenario normal o realista, donde la producción es 70% AOVE,
25% AOV, y el 5% restante AO lampante. En base a esta evaluación, se obtuvo
una tasa interna de retorno (TIR) de 27,98%, y un valor actual neto de
$266.092.734,65 con una tasa de descuento del 18,34%. Adicionalmente, se
realizó un análisis para determinar el recupero de la inversión, que será en el
cuarto año.
Para finalizar el estudio, se realiza un análisis de riesgo donde se
identifican las variables críticas capaces de afectar el desempeño económico del
proyecto. Estas variables corresponden a posibles variaciones en la calidad del
producto obtenido y el costo de adquisición de la materia prima. Respecto a la
primera variable, se analizaron tres posibles escenarios: uno pesimista, uno
neutral y uno optimista; y respecto a la segunda variable, se estudió utilizando el
software Crystal Ball. Se define el VAN como objetivo de previsión y se obtiene,
a través de la simulación en el software, una probabilidad de que este indicador
sea positivo, para un horizonte temporal de 10 años, de 75,81%.
The present project consists of a pre-feasibility study to install a plant of olive oil production. In the first step, the market study is evaluated, where information is collected from different sources of public and private entities, allowing define its supply and demand, main marketing channels and sales prices to the consumer market. Principal focus of the project is olive oil commercialization in the international market, that is why, in the consumer market, was researched what are the principal countries that demand, to a greater extent, this final product. On the other hand, the suppliers market research was developed analyzing mainly raw material and supplies, among other aspects. It was then determined that there is availability of oil production to develop the project with local producers. As for the competition, a study was performed to determine the principal competitors, the part of the target market they aim at and their competitive advantages. As regards the distributors market, the most appropriate means to distribute the product within the Argentinian territory and abroad were analyzed. Another important aspect of the Project involved the evaluation of the production process of continuous extraction. In order to develop it, a technology analysis focused on the main suppliers of the necessary machinery to develop the production process in each stage. The most important suppliers are PIERALISI, Amenduni, GEA, Manzano and Flottweg, among others. Regarding the size of the project, an annual production projected per season is 1.678.304 liters. 80% is commercialized to the outside market in bulks in 24,000-liter Flexitanks, and the remaining 20% is fractionated to the internal market in dark glass bottles of 500 c.c. with dispenser spout and metal screw cap. In the localization analysis, and considering a series of factors of interest, it was determined that the Capital department of La Rioja province, is the most adequate place for its establishment. This province is one with the largest area in the country, being a territory suitable for cultivation and development of olive trees, due to its optimal weather conditions. In addition, La Rioja became the first Argentine province to export olive oil, which is the main commercial activity of this project. The organizational structure was defined to fulfill 3 shifts of 8 hours each, during the 3 months season, having all the necessary departments for the correct functioning of the project activity. An environmental evaluation study was carried out to know the impact of the project and a mitigation plan was established to reduce the risks of it. An economic evaluation study established costs structures of the initial investment of the project, fixed and variable costs, working capital, as well as the income from the sale of the product and its profitability. The project was evaluated in a time horizon of ten years considering a normal or realistic scenario, where the production of extra virgin olive oil is 70%, virgin oil is 25% and pomace oil is 5%. Based on this evaluation, it was obtained an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27,98% and a net present value (NPV) of $266.092.734,65, with a discount rate of 18,34%. Additionally, an analysis determined the recovery investment period, which will be in the fourth year. To conclude the study, a risk analysis was made where critical variables able to affect economic performance of the project were identified. These variables correspond to possible variations in quality of the final product and acquisition costs of raw material. As regards the first variable, 3 scenarios were analyzed: a pessimist, a neutral and an optimist one; and about the second variable, this was studied using Crystal Ball software. The NPV was defined as a forecast target, which was obtained through the previously mentioned software, a probability of that indicator could be positive -75,81% - in a time horizon of 10 years.
The present project consists of a pre-feasibility study to install a plant of olive oil production. In the first step, the market study is evaluated, where information is collected from different sources of public and private entities, allowing define its supply and demand, main marketing channels and sales prices to the consumer market. Principal focus of the project is olive oil commercialization in the international market, that is why, in the consumer market, was researched what are the principal countries that demand, to a greater extent, this final product. On the other hand, the suppliers market research was developed analyzing mainly raw material and supplies, among other aspects. It was then determined that there is availability of oil production to develop the project with local producers. As for the competition, a study was performed to determine the principal competitors, the part of the target market they aim at and their competitive advantages. As regards the distributors market, the most appropriate means to distribute the product within the Argentinian territory and abroad were analyzed. Another important aspect of the Project involved the evaluation of the production process of continuous extraction. In order to develop it, a technology analysis focused on the main suppliers of the necessary machinery to develop the production process in each stage. The most important suppliers are PIERALISI, Amenduni, GEA, Manzano and Flottweg, among others. Regarding the size of the project, an annual production projected per season is 1.678.304 liters. 80% is commercialized to the outside market in bulks in 24,000-liter Flexitanks, and the remaining 20% is fractionated to the internal market in dark glass bottles of 500 c.c. with dispenser spout and metal screw cap. In the localization analysis, and considering a series of factors of interest, it was determined that the Capital department of La Rioja province, is the most adequate place for its establishment. This province is one with the largest area in the country, being a territory suitable for cultivation and development of olive trees, due to its optimal weather conditions. In addition, La Rioja became the first Argentine province to export olive oil, which is the main commercial activity of this project. The organizational structure was defined to fulfill 3 shifts of 8 hours each, during the 3 months season, having all the necessary departments for the correct functioning of the project activity. An environmental evaluation study was carried out to know the impact of the project and a mitigation plan was established to reduce the risks of it. An economic evaluation study established costs structures of the initial investment of the project, fixed and variable costs, working capital, as well as the income from the sale of the product and its profitability. The project was evaluated in a time horizon of ten years considering a normal or realistic scenario, where the production of extra virgin olive oil is 70%, virgin oil is 25% and pomace oil is 5%. Based on this evaluation, it was obtained an internal rate of return (IRR) of 27,98% and a net present value (NPV) of $266.092.734,65, with a discount rate of 18,34%. Additionally, an analysis determined the recovery investment period, which will be in the fourth year. To conclude the study, a risk analysis was made where critical variables able to affect economic performance of the project were identified. These variables correspond to possible variations in quality of the final product and acquisition costs of raw material. As regards the first variable, 3 scenarios were analyzed: a pessimist, a neutral and an optimist one; and about the second variable, this was studied using Crystal Ball software. The NPV was defined as a forecast target, which was obtained through the previously mentioned software, a probability of that indicator could be positive -75,81% - in a time horizon of 10 years.
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Keywords
oliva, producción de aceite
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